Finding Circle of Competence
Youtube has been around for 10+ years. That means there are dozens of interviews of Buffett, Munger, and other investing greats archived on this wonderful platform that also teaches people how to fix their own plumbing. Yet, whether the interviews were from the 2000s, 2010s, or 2020s, people ask the same questions like how to identify one’s circle of competence or when to know if an opportunity for a big bet presents itself.
Such questions could’ve been answered with “Opportunity presents itself to the prepared mind.” I’m sure someone famous said that. But this could be further distilled down to a simple directive of “Study more businesses.”
What most questioners want when they ask this question is to have a leg up on others so they can make a lot of money fast in their youth. The chances are, that is very unlikely. Even if they do, it’ll be unlikely they stay wealthy for long because money earned fast leaves just as fast—I think that’s a Korean proverb.
Most generic, yet important, investing questions can be answered with the need for more practice. More practice means studying more companies whilst staying in the market for a long time. I used to obsess over the notion of deliberate practice. I get why it’s important.
Of course, it’s optimal to practice with deliberation. But I ended up obsessing over what was the more optimal form of practicing. It’s like the person preparing the best shoes to run in instead of just running. It’s better to practice sub-optimally—as long as it doesn’t kill you—than delaying it. Because how the hell will you know if it really is suboptimal unless you do it and let the world punch you in the mouth? That’s to say, there really is no single optimal plan or way to practice.
How do you find your circle of competence? Study a wide variety of companies. If you like studying companies you’ll stick with it and maybe you’ll decide to invest for a while. If you don’t, then great, now you can stop obsessing about the question.
How do you know when a big opportunity for a big bet came? Study a wide variety of companies. You won’t know what’s special until you study hundreds of good and bad companies. If you don’t, it’s like the person from a small town who’s never left thinking they live in the best city in the world. The only antidote to their ignorance is to travel far and wide. What they’ll come to realize is there is no such thing as the best city or country in the world. Everything is relative and so are big opportunities. You’ll know it when you see it because you’ve seen so much.
That is all to say, as much as I love sitting and listening to investors talk, the practice required to understand what they are saying is in shutting the talk off and studying a bunch of businesses. When I think I see opportunity everywhere, I’m inclined to think that’s because I know so little. How to alleviate this? Sit down, ignore others, and practice. This could be the wrong approach, but there is only one way to find out.